1-Indianapolis Colts
Offense
Peyton Manning leads the AFC’s best offense. Throwing to Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark, and handing off to Edge James and Dominic Rhodes, Peyton has an almost embarrassing number of options. The line is good too, though they lack big-name players.
Defense
Now here there are some problems. The defensive line, until proven otherwise, consists of stud DE Dwight Freeney and a collection of mediocrities. The Colts have to replace yet another young starter at linebacker, and MLB Rob Morris has been injured or ineffectual or both his entire career. In the secondary, Indy will be ridiculously young, possibly starting 3 second-year players along with undersized rookie SS Bob Sanders, who is still inexplicably holding out.
Prediction
The Colts will have to outscore opponents, and considering the wealth of talent they have on offense, they should do it. Look for a tight battle down the stretch with Tennessee for the division crown, with the loser in the wild card round. Indianapolis will not be a true title contender until the defense stiffens though. The young but talented secondary will have to grow up quickly, facing Steve McNair and up-and-comers Byron Leftwich and David Carr.
2-Tennessee Titans
Offense
It will look odd not seeing Eddie George or Frank Wycheck on this team. Losing those veterans will hurt, but not as much as the loss of Justin McCareins at wideout. Both George and Wycheck have been slowing down the last couple of seasons, while McCareins has continued to improve. Now it will be up to Drew Bennett and Tyrone Calico to lessen the pressure on Derrick Mason. Steve McNair is one of the best quarterbacks in football, and without question the toughest. Chris Brown will attempt to replace George, and running behind a massive offensive line, just may do it.
Defense
The Freak is gone. Jevon Kearse joined the Eagles as a free agent, and to be frank, the Titans are not that concerned. Kearse is a great player at times, but his injuries and inconsistency drove Coach Jeff Fisher crazy. The bigger loss is DT Robaire Smith, who signed with division rival Houston. To compensate they drafted three ends in the first four rounds, and switched Kevin Carter inside. The line would be far better if the talented but lazy Albert Haynseworth could play up to his potential. Keith Bullock leads a fine group of linebackers, and the secondary is excellent, led by corner Samari Rolle. Look for third-year man Lamont Thompson to supplant aging Lance Schulters at SS.
Prediction
As long as McNair stays healthy, this is a team with Super Bowl aspirations. The window is beginning to close though, and the Titans will need to replace some parts. Look for a dogfight with Indy, then a quick exit from the playoffs. If the young D-Line grows up quickly though, seeing this team in Jacksonville in February isn’t out of the question.
3-Jacksonville Jaguars
Offense
With the drafting of stud WR Reggie Williams, Jacksonville has assembled a nice offense around second-year QB Byron Leftwich. Williams will spend this season learning from veteran Jimmy Smith, and then take over as the primary target in 2005. The Jags also sport some impressive depth at tailback (considering Fred Taylor’s injury record, they’ll need it), with rookie Greg Jones and second-year man LaBrandon Toefield, plus an improving offensive line.
Defense
Jacksonville is strong along the middle of the line, with tackles Marcus Stroud and John Henderson finally living up to their high-draft status, but empty on the ends, with Hugh Douglas struggling to avoid the “bust” label, and a gaping whole following the release of Tony Brackens. They do sport a talented group of linebackers, small and fast in the Jimmy Johnson-mold, led by ex-Colt Mike Peterson. The secondary has been overhauled, but remains strong at safety and iffy at corner.
Prediction
The Jags are an up and coming team, but one with enough questions to keep it from seriously contending this season. What kind of sophomore slump will Leftwich have? Will Taylor stay healthy? Do Smith and Douglas have anything left in the tank? Most importantly, what kind of coach will Jack Del Rio be? He had an up and down first season, committing an embarrassing gaffe with the tree stump motivational tool, where All-Pro punter Chris Hanson nearly severed his foot. Del Rio also seems to lack confidence in his staff, publicly confronting offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave. He hired Musgrave, a Bill Walsh disciple, and instructed him to install the West Coast Offense. He did, and halfway through the season, Del Rio complained that the team didn’t play ball control. Hey Jack, you been paying attention the last 20 years?
4-Houston Texans
Offense
David Carr is now in his third year, and has shown definite improvement. The Texans are beginning to surround Carr with talent too, starting with two second-year players, WR Andre Johnson and RB Domanick Davis, both of whom had fine rookie seasons. To go anywhere this year, Houston needs someone to step up and take pressure of Johnson. Neither Jabar Gaffney nor Corey Bradford has done the job.
Defense
The Texans run a 3-4 defense, and they have the linebackers to pull it off, led by ILB Jamie Sharper and Jay Foreman, both whom turned in excellent seasons. They’re joined this year by first-rounder Jason Babin, who played DE in college at Western Michigan. The line is a bit of a mess, but help is on the way, as the Texans signed DE Robaire Smith away from Tennessee. The other two spots are up in the air, with NT Seth Payne and DE Gary Walker are both coming off injuries. In the secondary, rookie Dunta Robinson joins Pro Bowler Aaron Glenn. Robinson, a physical specimen wasn’t much of a playmaker in college, and is a lot more raw than people realize.
Prediction
The Texans are on the way up. A lot depends on Carr’s continued grown, and health along the defensive line. Figure on 6-8 wins.
Previously: AFC East
Posted by Frinklin at August 24, 2004 07:50 PM