1-New Orleans Saints
Offense
Led by quarterback Aaron Brooks, tailback Deuce McAlister and WR Joe Horn, the Saints are at times the most explosive team in football. Those are the times where everything is working and everyone’s head is in the game. Then there are times when Brooks presses, McAlister is hurt, and Horn is so lost in his own ego he doesn’t know what day it is. On those days, the Saints misfire like an obsessive-compulsive with Tourette’s syndrome. In other words, it is not pretty. The line is steady though, led by elite center LaCharles Bentley.
Defense
Stop me if you have heard this before: The Saints are talented on defense, but not always productive and wildly erratic. This begins up front, as dependable end Darren Howard is joined by former first round draft picks Charles Grant and Jonathon Sullivan. Both are talented, neither has lived up to expectations. At linebacker, the Saints have a lot to choose from, but do not have any real standouts. Someone from the grab bag of Orlando Huff, Cie Grant, Sedrick Hodge, James Alllen and Derrick Rodgers will have to step up. The secondary is the Saints most consistent spot, led by free safety Jay Bellamy and corner Fred Thomas, both ex-Seahawks. Strong Safety Tebucky Jones was a huge disappointment last year, living up to his reputation as a physical talent with little feel for the game.
Prediction
This is hard team to get a bead on. Each of the last three years, they have played like champions at times, and like a high school jayvee teams others. Coach Jim Haslett knows he’s firmly on the hot seat now. This team needs to win to save his job, and I think they will, holding off Carolina and Atlanta to win the division, and probably grab the only playoff spot coming out of the South.
2-Carolina Panthers
Offense
Jake Delhomme? Seriously? We came within an eyelash of Jake Delhomme, Super Bowl Champion QB? Laugh if you will, but Delhomme has consistently improved. He may not be the most physically gifted quarterback in the NFL, but his intangibles are off the charts, and he works well with star receiver Steve Smith. The Panthers offense isn’t very exciting, but with Delhomme-to-Smith complementing tailbacks Stephen Davis and DeShaun Foster, it is effective. The line is a bit of a mess though, with star rookie Jordan Gross flipping to LT and ex-Colt Adam Meadows signed to play RT.
Defense
Everything John Fox’s defense does is predicated on the Panthers awesome defensive line. Led by Kris Jenkins, simply the best DT in the game right now and All-Pro end Mike Rucker, Carolina has, barring injury, the best line in the NFL. The back seven is unsettled, relying on Mark Fields to come back from cancer and the talented but injury-prone Dan Morgan at linebacker. The secondary is equally in flux, as corner Rickey Manning Jr. returns after a fine rookie season that ended badly in the Super Bowl. This year’s model could be first-rounder Chris Gamble, but he is still raw after playing receiver at Ohio State.
Prediction
Last year was magical for Carolina, and the follow-ups to magic years usually don’t end so well. There is talent here, more than was given credit for last year, but not enough to handle the almost-inevitable fork in the road. One thing is certain though: John Fox is a quality NFL coach.
3-Atlanta Falcons
Offense
Well, the team went 3-1 with Mike Vick, and 2-10 without him. That should give everyone an idea about how important Vick is to this team. Last year’s disaster cost Coach Dan Reeves his job, and former 49er defensive coordinator Jim Mora Jr. takes his place. With Mora comes offensive coordinator Gregg Knapp, who is installing the West Coast Offense. It will force Vick to quicken his reads and receiver progression. There is a history of success for scrambling lefthanders in this offense; it is the same that Steve Young ran as a 49er. The rest of the offensive sets up well, with TJ Duckett and Warrick Dunn sharing the tailback duties, and Peerless Price trying to live up to expectations at wideout. The biggest addition to the Falcon offense is legendary line coach Alex Gibbs, known for his amazing work with the Denver Broncos.
Defense
After a year’s worth of flailing at the 3-4 defense, the Falcons will switch back to the 4-3 under Mora and new coordinator Ed Donatell, formerly of the Green Bay Packers. This should fit the Falcons personnel much better, allowing DE Patrick Kerney to play DE in the 4-3 instead of switching between DE and OLB in the 3-4. All-Pro LB Keith Brooking moves back to the outside, and Chris Draft will man the middle. The third linebacker will be Jamie Duncan, a free-agent fresh off two terrible seasons in St. Louis. The secondary will be talented but inexperienced, as first rounder DeAngelo Hall from Virginia Tech will be at one corner, ex-49er Jason Webster the other. Second-year SS Bryan Scott is rapidly improving, but FS is a weak point.
Prediction
Like Tom Coughlin in New York, Mora steps into a good situation. The overall talent level is good, topped by Vick, the most exciting player in the NFL. There are some rough spots to get through, but this team should compete. Knapp’s system will be a stretch for Vick; he probably won’t be completely comfortable in it until 2005.
4-Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Offense
Jon Gruden probably runs the purest version of the West Coast this side of Mike Holmgren, but he can’t be particularly pleased with this bunch. Brad Johnson seems to be slipping. He threw 13 interceptions his last 10 games of 2003. It’s common knowledge that Gruden has high hopes for Chris Simms. I would not be surprised to see him sometime this season. Whoever plays QB will throw to Joey Galloway, Keenan McCardell and Joe Jurivicius, along with first pick Michael Clayton, a big, fast receiver out of LSU. The ground game is in flux, as ex-Raider Charlie Garner was signed as a free agent, sending Michael Pittman, who cannot seem to stay out of trouble, to the bench. Garner is 32 though; an age where running back production can fall off a cliff. The offensive line was a mess last year, and is even more so this year. The Buccaneers seem to be cycling through old tackles. This time around, it is 33-year-old Todd Steussie and 34-year-old Derrick Deese.
Defense
The situation is much better here despite the loss of longtime Bucs John Lynch and Warren Sapp. The defensive line is one of the better in the NFL, even without Sapp. Anthony “Booger” McFarland will move into Sapp’s spot, with Chartric Darby taking McFarland’s spot. The ends are excellent, with Simeon Rice on one side, and Greg Spires and Dewayne White the other. The linebackers are fast and athletic, led by Derrick Brooks, who is now joined by former Bronco Ian Gold and Shelton Quarles. There is little depth though, and rookie Marquis Cooper will play a lot. The secondary is solid at corner, with Ronde Barber, Brian Kelley and newcomer Mario Edwards forming a nice trio. On the other hand, the safety positions are a mess, with Jermaine Phillips and Dwight Smith penciled in as starters. Both are talented, but both are inexperienced.
Prediction
This is an old team. That isn’t any kind of shock, but what is shocking is how they became older even when they let go Lynch and Sapp. Signing Steussie, Deese and Garner send the signal that they think they can contend this season, but I don’t see it. Tampa will rely on its defense, and hope the offense stays out of its own way. Rebuilding should start this year.