1-Green Bay Packers
Offense
Hard to believe, but this team belongs to Ahman Green now. Brett Farve is still a force; in fact, he led the NFL in touchdown passes with 32. He also threw 21 interceptions, so his decision-making has regressed under Mike Sherman. Still, this team has more of a power-running identity than a West Coast Offense ID to it nowadays, with Green and backup Najeh Davenport providing both tough yards and breakaway runs. Farve will need his young wideouts to continue improving; both Javon Walker and Robert Ferguson are making strides. The line, led by tackle Chad Clifton is good, but struggles when defenses stack the box to stop the run.
Defense
This young and talented defense has a new coordinator this year, as Ed Donatell took the fall for Pack’s collapse against the Eagles in last years playoffs. He is replaced by Bob Slowik, who will keep the same scheme, but up the pressure on the QB, especially in third and long situations. He has some nice parts to deal with, led by star second-year linebacker Nick Barnett. Barnett plays the middle between Hannibal Navies and Na’il Diggs. Both are physical specimens who don’t always play to their potential. Up front the key is DT Grady Jackson, who came over after being cut by New Orleans at mid-season. He was rejuvenated after signing, and he’ll have to continue playing like that in order to anchor a talented but thin line that includes Kabeer Gbaja-Biamilla and tackle Cleditus Hunt. In the secondary, Green Bay will need to find a way to get the Mike McKenzie situation taken care off. If they can keep him, he would top a nice set of talented young cornerbacks, including Ahmad “Batman” Carroll and Joey Thomas, their first and second round draftees.
Prediction
This is the best team nobody is talking about. For all the discussion of Philadelphia and Seattle, it’s forgotten that Green Bay beat Seattle and had the Eagles on the ropes. Brett Farve is nearing the end of his magnificent career, but he has one more run in him. This is the year he does it.
2-Minnesota Vikings
Offense
The Vikes will score points, probably in bunches this year. Quarterback Duante Culpepper, WR Randy Moss and tailback Michael Bennett are the names everyone knows, but backup TB Ontarrio Smith and wideouts Kelly Campbell and Nate Burleson are coming on quickly. The passing game is especially scary, with FA pickup Marcus Robinson and Campbell going deep, Burleson working the short and intermediate routes and Moss doing whatever he wants too. The line is good too, led by left tackle Bryant McKinnie, who is knocking on the door of the truly elite tackles like Orlando Pace, Walter Jones and Jonathon Ogden. This is a team, when clicking that will scare many teams.
Defense
New coordinator Ted Cottrell, dumped at the end of the year by Herman Edwards and the Jets, gets to work with some nice pieces. The middle of the line could be special, led by second-year tackle Kevin Williams, who had a terrific rookie season, and veteran Chris Hovan. The linebackers are young, speedy and talented, led by EJ Henderson and rookie Dontarrious Thomas. Veteran Chris Claiborne, who should give them lessens on not ending up like him, joins them: a heralded prospect that never amounted to much. The secondary is strengthened by the free-agent acquisition of CB Antoine Winfield, signed away from Buffalo. Beyond Winfield, the strength of the DBs is at safety, where Corey Chavous made a slick transition from mediocre corner to Pro Bowl safety.
Prediction
Well, it all depends on how they deal with last year’s collapse and heartbreaking loss to Arizona. If they can get over that, and play as they did early in the season, Minnesota is a team that can contend for the Super Bowl. If not…
3-Detroit Lions
Offense
Joey Harrington doesn’t have a whole lot of excuses now, does he? The Lions have surrounded him with impressive, if unproven talent. This year’s haul includes WR Roy Williams and RB Kevin Jones, along with free-agent lineman Damien Woody. Williams will join last years first-rounder Charles Rogers in a dynamic young WR tandem. Rogers is coming off injury, and Williams has looked lost at times during the pre-season, but the two should work out in time. Young receivers usually struggle. Jones is the most exciting back the Lions have had since Barry Sanders, and should compete for Rookie of the Year honors. The problem? Harrington himself; neither Lions fans nor his coaches have decided he is the real deal or not, and he seems in perpetual jeopardy of losing his job to Mike McMahon, a raw but exciting talent.
Defense
New coordinator Dick Jauron has his hands full here. The ex-Bear head coach has some talent along the line, assuming Kalimba Edwards can recover from an injury plagued year, his three-tackle rotation of Shaun Rogers, Dan Wilkinson and Kelvin Pritchitt play like they did last year, and either of his two young ends, Jared DeVries or Cory Redding can provide something. At linebacker, the Lions looked to be in good shape before the season started, but the season ending injury to Boss Bailey is devastating. With Bailey, who showed flashes of All-Pro talent last year, the Lions had a young and talented linebacking corps. Now they are just young. Dre Bly anchors the secondary, a year after joining the team as a free agent from St. Louis. Bly had a career last year. He won’t repeat it, but should be solid nonetheless. The other corner should be ex-Jag Fernando Bryant. The safeties are anyone’s guess.
Prediction
The Lions are getting better. The key, of course is Joey Harrington. I think he will start to blossom this year, and by season’s end should have the Lions clicking pretty well. The defense is another story, as the offense heavy drafts are taking their toll. Bottom line: Detroit will improve this year, enough to keep Matt Millen’s job safe.
4-Chicago Bears
Offense
New coach Lovie Smith and coordinator Terry Shea bring a version of the offense that St. Louis and Kansas City run so effectively. As you might expect, transitioning from a power-running game to a “Greatest Show on Turf” style of offense will not be easy. Shea has already sent away leading receiver Marty Booker, and brought in new tailback Thomas Jones. Jones, a former Cardinal first rounder, has all the physical tools to excel in this offense. He replaces Anthony “A-Train” Thomas, a power back with limited moves and bad hands. Second year QB Rex Grossman goes into the year the undisputed starter. It won’t be easy though, Shea’s offense is complicated. He will be throwing to a nice bunch of young receivers, including Justin Gage, Bernard Berrian and Bobby Wade. The offensive line is just alright, with free-agents Rueben Brown and John Tait joining holdover Olin Kruetz. Tait was a good signing, Brown was not: He’s always been overrated and has seriously slowed.
Defense
Smith also brings the Tampa cover-2 scheme to the Windy City. He has good talent to work with, especially after picking up Adewale Ogunleye from Miami in the Booker deal. Ogunleye, who had 15 sacks, will anchor a talented line with Alex Brown and rookies Tommie Harris and Tank Johnson at the tackles. It will be interesting to see how Harris does in the NFL. He has always been talented but never particularly productive. In addition, how Johnson goes from ineffective malcontent at Washington to the “Tank” is beyond me. Brian Urlacher has something to prove at middle linebacker, as he was criticized last year for a lack of production. He could come back strong this year. He’ll be flanked by youth, probably Lance Briggs and Joe Odom. Both are fast but inexperienced. The secondary is a strength. Charles Tillman takes a starting job after a terrific rookie season as the nickleback, leaving RW McQuarters and Jerry Azumah battling for the second and nickel spots. Both are fantastic kick returners also. The safeties, Mike Green and Mike Brown, are steady.
Prediction
It will be a shock for some Bears, going from the laid-back Dick Jauron to the fiery Smith. This will be a transition year for Chicago, but the future looks good.