The top four teams in this conference (Ohio State, Michigan, Purdue and Iowa) all have legitimate National Championship dreams. The next five (Michigan State, Minnesota, Penn State, Wisconsin, and Northwestern) all have solid bowl hopes and an outside shot of a special season. The last two, Illinois and Indiana, have new coaches with Herculean tasks ahead of them. For 2005, this is the best conference in the country.
1. Michigan Wolverines
Offense
All Chad Henne did as a true freshman was start every game and tie Elvis Grbac’s single-season TD pass record with 25. All Mike Hart did as a true freshman was rush for 1,455 yards at over five yards a pop. Now they have to avoid the sophomore slump and lead the Blue to a third consecutive Rose Bowl. Braylon Edwards, now a Cleveland Brown, is gone, but Jason Avant and the ultra-exciting Steve Breaston lead a deep, talented wide receiver corps. The tight end combo of Tim Massaquoi and Tyler Ecker might be the best in the country. The offensive line, led by star tackle Adam Stenavich, is the typical Michigan line; big, nasty and made of almost entirely of future pros.
The Wolverines will score points, lots of them.
Defense
As settled and potent the offense is, the defense might be the exact opposite. Michigan was shredded down the stretch last year, giving up an average of 33 points over the last four games. Michigan failed on a mental level last season, failing to keep containment and tackling very poorly. They were especially killed by mobile quarterbacks like Troy Smith of OSU and Vince Young from Texas. There is too much talent, especially along the line, with future NFL tackles Gabe Watson and Pat Massey, and edge players Pierre Woods and LaMarr Woodley. Both Woods and Woodley switch between DE and OLB throughout the season and individual games. The secondary was decimated by graduation though, as only CB Leon Hall returns.
Overview
The offense should be one of the nation’s best, and the defense is waaay to talented to be as lousy as it was down the stretch. Unfortunately, that was the case last year too. This team is getting reputation as a slightly lazy one, which must drive Coach Lloyd Carr just nuts. If this team can show more disciple and hunger on the field, they will be one of challengers to USC’s throne. If not, then they finish about third, and lose at least 2 games to less-talented teams.
2. Ohio State Buckeyes
Offense
If Troy Smith or Justin Zwick can provide consistent quarterback play, this offense will be just as scary as Michigan’s, maybe more so. Smith, a very mobile quarterback with an erratic arm, and Zwick, a classic dropback passer and Ohio schoolboy legend, present very different looks. Zwick will definitely start the opener, as Smith is suspended for 1 game, but look for Smith to be the man once he returns. Whichever grabs the QB job, all eyes will be on the wideouts. Ted Ginn is the most exciting player in the country not named Reggie Bush and Santonio Holmes is the perfect compliment. The line returns 4 starters, plus tight end Ryan Hamby. The running game is the problem. Coach Jim Tressel never really replaced Maurice Clarett. Erik Haw, Antonio Pittman and true freshman Maurice Wells will try to this year.
Defense
Like Michigan, the Buckeyes had difficulty keeping containment against mobile quarterbacks. Unlike Michigan, OSU managed not to implode down the stretch. The Bucks D is led by its linebacker corps. AJ Hawk, Bobby Carpenter, Anthony Schlegel, Mike D’Andrea and Marcus Freeman constitute the deepest unit in the Big 10. The line is adequate, though the defense as a whole has to improve on 2004’s middling 24 sacks. The secondary is good, led by corner Ashton Youbouty.
Overview
Provided the Buckeyes settle on a quarterback and tailback, this could be a season to remember. Smith led the team well down the stretch and should continue to grow into the job. Despite Coach Jim Tressel’s love for a grinding running game, the Buckeyes have the talent to explode through the air.
3.Purdue Boilermakers
Offense
Coach Joe Tiller is experimenting with an Urban Meyer-like option wrinkle to his famous “Basketball on grass” spread offense now that quick and nimble Brandon Kirsch is expected to start. Kirsch, after a sometimes rocky apprenticeship to Kyle Orton, is a daredevil QB who sometimes does too much. Despite Taylor Stubblefield, the NCAA’s all-time leading receiver, leaving, the wideouts maybe Tiller’s best. Blue-chip recruits Greg Orton and Selwyn Lymon join the 6-9 Kyle Ingraham. The Boilers’ top two tailbacks from 2004, Jerod Void and Brandon Jones both return, plus the team adds redshirt freshman Kory Sheets.
Defense
Despite some last minute failures, coordinator Brock Spack has to be commended with his unit’s performance. Purdue was very young on defense last season, but still only gave up an average of 17 points per game. Now a year older, the defense returns all 11 starters. Spack does need to figure out how to generate more turnovers. The team only had 15 all of last season.
Overview
This could be Tiller’s best team at Purdue. If Kirsch clicks with the offense, and there is no reason why he wouldn’t, this team will score bunches of points. If the defense can cut down on last minute mistakes, Purdue could turn an Ohio State and Michigan-free schedule into a BCS berth.
4.Iowa Hawkeyes
Offense
At this time last year, very few had heard of Drew Tate. Now, after a sparkling sophomore season (2,784 yards, 20 TD, first team All-Big Ten), he is the best reason Iowa fans are thinking BCS and maybe more. Tate has a remarkable ability to improvise and a never-say-die approach that makes him both effective and a fan favorite. His 56-yard TD toss with no time left in the Capitol One Bowl will never be forgotten by Hawkeye fans. Tate has some impressive receivers to work with, led by seniors Ed Hinkle and Clinton Soloman. Both have good size (both are over six feet) and good hands. The running game needs work though; the Hawks finished at 72.58 yards per game, good for 116th in the nation, a remarkable statistic for a bowl team.
Defense
Iowa has great linebackers and a lot of youth. Scott Greenway and Abdul Hodge are both honors candidates. Hodge is a speedy 230-pound middle ‘backer, while Greenway is bigger (6-4, 244) and more physical against the run. The problem is, they might be very, very busy this year, as all four starters are gone from the front line. Of the eight players in the two-deeps along the D-line, six are underclassmen. They have talent up front, but zero experience. The backfield is okay, as both corners (Jovon Johnson and Antwan Allen) return, though are both are undersized.
Overview
Tate makes this team dangerous. He’s short –listed at 6-0, but that’s rumored to be off by as much as two inches-, small at 185 pounds and he doesn’t have a rocket arm.
And every opposing coach in the Big Ten is afraid of him. Tate is patient, smart and endlessly improvisational. He’s the type of college quarterback who can make a mediocre team good and a good team great. It helps that Kirk Ferentz, one of the best in the business, is his head coach.
5.Michigan State Spartans
Offense
What is it with Big Ten and quarterbacks named Drew? A few years ago it was Drew Brees. Now it is Drew Tate at Iowa. Michigan State’s version, Drew Stanton, isn’t far behind. Like Tate, he isn’t always pretty, but he’s daring and makes good decisions. As long as he’s healthy, the Spartans are in every game. He runs John L. Smith’s spread offense, which demands quick reads and accuracy. The Spartans have plenty at wideout, starting with 6-6 Kyle Trannon and Jerremy Scott. The running game is adequate, though they could use a game-breaker.
Defense
The Spartans run an ultra-aggressive 4-2-5 arrangement that causes big plays for both sides. Five starters return, but little that qualifies as a major strength. There is talent here, especially at linebacker, where sophomore Kaleb Thornhill could be special. Senior Eric Smith returns at Bandit, a LB and SS hybrid. He’s quick and active, but at 193 pounds, pretty seriously undersized.
Overview
The Spartans have the classic look of a team about a year away. The defense has talent, but little experience and the offense may have to win shootouts this year. Once the defense gels, this could be a very dangerous team and a darkhorse pick in the Big Ten.
6.Penn State Nittany Lions
Offense
After approximately 16 seasons as the Lions starting QB, Zack Mills is gone. That leaves QB/WR hybrid Michael Robinson as the starter, though soph Anthony Morelli could move Robinson to wideout permanently. The Lions have been awful on offense the past few seasons, “improving” to 90th in passing offense last year. Derrick Williams, the #1 recruit in the nation should help. He’s a dynamic playmaker who reminds observers of Reggie Bush and Ted Ginn. He should start immediately. The running game is better, with Austin Scott recovering from injury and workhorse Tony Hunt returning. The line returns all five starters, four of them seniors.
Defense
The Lions D was pretty good last year, not allowing any team over 21 points. That a team with that stout a defense could lose six in a row should tell you how brutal the offense was last year. Corner Alan Zemaitis is a big, physical player who is also a team leader. The other corner, Anwar Phillips was picked on as teams avoided Zemaitis, but he acquitted himself well with four interceptions. He may lose his job anyway, as top recruit Justin King could beat him out. The linebackers are good too, especially sophomore Dan Conner. The Nittany Lions are playing with a 3-4 alignment in order to improve team speed.
Overview
If Robinson or Morelli provides steady play at QB, JoePa might have his best team in several years. The defense played well all last season, and Williams and King should help inject some excitement.
7. Minnesota Golden Gophers
Offense
Glen Mason’s teams are not particularly exciting, but his basic ground game works well, especially when it features a back as exciting as Laurence Maroney. With running mate Marion Barber gone to the NFL, Maroney could have a 2,000 yard season if he’s healthy. QB Bryan Cupito must improve for the Gophers to get anywhere though. He completed less than 48% of his passes. Without a legitimate threat from the passing game, teams will stack 11 in the box to stop Maroney.
Defense
Minnesota, due to a lack of speed and size, plays a very conservative bend-but-don’t-break style of defense. As Mason improves the physical talent on this side of the ball, expect that to change. The Gophers are still small and slow along the line, but the linebackers, led by middleman Mike Sherels, an exciting sophomore, are better than at any time under Mason. The defensive backfield is the most physically talented unit, but in need of some experience.
Overview
The Gophers started out well last year. At 5-0, they looked on the verge of a breakthrough season and a challenge for the Big Ten championship. That didn’t happen, as the team lost five of its last six regular season games, including humiliating losses to Michigan State, who racked up 51 against them, and loss to a brutal Indiana team. They did recover to beat Alabama in the Motor City Bowl. Expect much of the same from this edition: they need to get early leads and wear teams down with Maroney. If they get behind, they don’t have the firepower to catch up
8.Wisconsin Badgers
Offense
The effectiveness of the Badgers offense will rely almost exclusively on one man; tailback Brian Calhoun. Calhoun, a transfer from Colorado, is expected to shove provide a spark that was lacking last year due to injuries to Anthony Davis and Booker Stanley. Davis is gone now, and Stanley might be too as he was arrested during the off-season. John Stucco returns at QB, though he may be pushed by Tyler Donovan, who is more runner than passer. The line is excellent, led by center Donovan Raiola. The wideouts are good too. Provided Stucco and Donovan can get them the ball, Brandon Williams and Jonathon Orr can stretch defenses.
Defense
The Badgers lost a lot of quality here, especially along the line where Anttaj Hawthorne and Erasmus James starred. Throw in the loss of safety Jim Leonhard and corner Scott Starks and the Badgers are starting just above ground zero. A healthy return from corner Brett Bell, who is recovering from knee surgery, and a breakthrough from talented end Jamal Cooper would go a long way toward establishing this defense.
Overview
Barry Alvarez has announced this will be his last season, and that could inspire Wisconsin to play above their heads. As it stands, the Badgers are too young on defense and too weak at QB to challenge the Big Ten’s upper echelon. The defense will have to grow up very quickly, as the opener is a classic “gotcha” game against Bowling Green and star QB Omar Jacobs.
9.Northwestern Wildcats
Offense
The Wildcats offense has been very schizophrenic the past few seasons. They run a conservative version of the spread, more like West Virginia’s run-based attack than Purdue’s “Basketball on Grass”. Northwestern is very good at moving the ball, averaging over 400 yards per game, but not especially good at scoring. They had problems in the red zone last year, scoring 24 touchdowns in 39 attempts. Brett Basanez returns for his fourth year as starter. Basanez has had seriously up-and-down career, and needs to go out on a good note for the ‘Cats to be successful at all.
Defense
Northwestern’s defense isn’t the disaster area it was a couple of years ago when it gave up 500 yards per game. It still isn’t that good either, as the Wildcats gave up more than 40 four times in 2004. The biggest problem area is at corner. Both returnees have issues. Jeff Backes gambles too much and gets toasted too often, and Marquice Cole is undersized at 5-9. The linebackers are good; a rugged, tough bunch that makes plays despite lacking speed. The line has a very nice building block in tackle Barry Cofield.
Overview
Coach Randy Walker is a tough, rugged, never-say-die kind of coach, and his team plays that way. However, the overall talent level doesn’t match the teams ahead of NW, and it will take a lot for them to catch up.
10. Illinois Fighting Illini
Offense
Ron Zook has junked former coach Ron Turner’s West Coast scheme and brought a wide-open spread offense much like his Florida team ran. First item on the agenda is finding a quarterback, with juniors Tim Brasic and Chris Pazan, along with freshman Kisan Flakes, in the mix. While the QB position is in flux, the running game is a strength behind the shifty Pierre Thomas and do-everything EB Halsey. Kendrick Jones is the top returning receiver. The wideouts are capable, but lack gamebreaking speed.
Defense
Zook kept Mike Mallory, Turner’s defensive coordinator. Mallory did well, despite a lack of physical talent. The defensive line is undersized and the linebackers are slow. The defensive backfield should be a strength despite the loss of corner Kelvin Hayden. Morris Virgil, Travis Williams and Justin Harrison form a potent safety rotation.
Overview
Turner’s team crumbled the past 2 seasons after a Big Ten championship and BCS berth. There isn’t much to work with in terms of talent, but Zook was a very effective recruiter at Florida. 2005 will be a transition year.
11.Indiana Hoosiers
Offense
New Coach Terry Hoeppner has installed a spread offense with pro-style formations, much like his offenses at Miami (OH). Unfortunately, Hoeppner left more talent at Miami than he arrives to n Bloomington. Blake Powers and Grame McFarland are battling for the starting QB job; plus Hoeppner must replace the transferred BenJarvus Green-Ellis, last season’s leading rusher. The line returns four starters, and Hoeppner is excited about his young receiving corps led by Jahkeen Gilmore.
Defense
Like the offense, the defense will rely more on misdirection than speed or size. Hoeppner is installing a zone blitz scheme that, theoretically anyway, should allow the Hoosiers to work around their lack of talent. They return six starters, though the new staff will throw everything open.
Overview
Hoeppner might have been well-served to stay at Miami until a better job opened up. The Hoosiers are a quagmire at this point, as Gerry Dinardo was canned despite some progress on the field. The biggest problem is fan support, as the Hoosiers averaged around 10,000 fans in 52,000-seat Memorial Stadium. Hoeppner is an energy guy who will do all he can to enthuse the fan base.